Fires In Hawaii, And Climate Change In General

[DSC]

It was today's morning when I took knowledge of this on TV: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/aug/10/hawaii-fires-wildfires-lahaina-maui-death-toll-latest-updates . I was beyond horrified. I don't have a way with words and I could never in a satisfiable way translate my precise feelings, specially while speaking a second language. I'll try my best and just say this: a few years ago my country went through a similar tragedy that is felt deeply to this very day. Watching a similar event play out again brings back some awful memories. Over 30 deceased people... Such horrible waste of life...

 

And knowing this year so far has been the hottest in recorded history, the lines that can be traced back to climate change can't be ignored, and that's the main thing I kind of want to talk about. Thanks to the greed of a few rich fucks, future's not looking so bright for planet Earth. However, many of those said rich assholes are already a bunch of old farts, and they know they'll be six feet under before the time the planet becomes a living inferno. Younger folk like me, however, will have this absolute nightmare as our inheritance from the previous generation, and that thought deeply depresses me. Its not something I think of everyday as I have several more personal and immediate problems to deal with daily, and this is only something that will happen in the near future. But looking at those news I couldn't help but think about it again. The fact its probably irreversible at this point and all we'll be able to do is just to try as hard as we can to hold on doesn't make it any better...

 

I just wanted to ask other DW, do you share this feeling of hopelessness and sadness too? If so, how do you cope with it?

[LadyMistDragon]

In a word, most definitely.

 

As for coping, accepting the reality that you can really only affect the space within the small area (negighborhood, town, etc) in which you live and try to be the best support for whatever friends that you've got, maybe try some volunteering if you have the spare time. That's really it. I don't want to discuss the reality or lack thereof of global warming for obvious reasons.

[Azuris]

Evolution, adopt to the Situation or go extinct.

I am sure we'll adopt

 

Running around in Panic with Signs saying: "The End is near!", will help nobody nor the Environment. Denying that our Behaviour can Change our Surroundings is also way too ignorant.

 

We need clever People, from Engineers and Chemists to Menteurs that will bring technical Solutions and more.

 

Just as an Reminder that Things can Change with Solutions.

The Ozone Hole is closing because we banned certain Gases and found Solutions to use others instead to make our Hair nice.

 

To blame our Ancestors is also dumb, we'll have to go through certain Stages to evolve in out Society, Zivilization and Technology.

To have a nice Analogy, no one has become an Adult without having done something dumb as an Teenager.

[Nikku4211]

I feel hopeless too when it comes to climate change. There will always be rich PoSes that ruin everything for us.

 

I may be young, but I still don't have that many years left...

 

I'd give it a few posts before this starts turning into a debate on economic systems.

[Dogmachine]

Sadness and hopelessness are almost inevitable with how things have been. And still, all this shift in climate due to the stupidity and greed of Homo sapiens is still somewhat part of nature, given that we are animals at the end of the day. Maybe one can find some solace on the fact that life on Earth will go on despite all the hellish landscapes. 

[maxmanium]

I'm a bit of a doomer (no pun intended) when it comes to stuff like climate change. Yeah, I know humanity has survived thus far through many trials and tribulations, but it's not like we had the current level of industrialization pre-20th century. We may not go extinct but at some point life will be very different to what it is now, IMO.

[Mr. Freeze]

Climate change has to be combated at all levels- even ours. Until we as a species can make better consumer choices it's only going to get worse. 

[Aaron Blain]

We need people to get together to do something about this. It's everybody's business, and everything is on the line.

 

The thing is, it's not a technological problem. We don't need some genius to bring us nanobots that will fix everything. We have the technology and the resources. The problem is political-economic.

 

I don't want to get into specific politics on DW, but I'd like to point out that it's very strange that we've all been convinced that these issues need to be "addressed through the proper channels", according to the rules that those in power, those responsible for this catastrophe, have created to favor themselves. They are literally killing us right now. They are killing everything. I have poisonous particles in my lungs because Canada was on fire for a week or so.

 

Nihilism is not acceptable. We need everybody to get into mass organizations and build the political power to fix this.

[Argent Agent]

As someone studying climate change's effects on tropical cyclones for my PhD, I lose hope when I see things like this happening:

 

 

And then I also lose hope when I see political leaders trying to maintain the status quo and not following through with emissions goals when it appears as though we are approaching/potentially past a tipping point, given the figures above.

[Dumbdoot6677]

I've sort of just accepted it at this point. Its almost exactly like how it is in the movies. Mankind's worst biggest threat is itself. I have a slight bit of hope that maybe us humans can get our act together but unfortunately, supporting our planet's survival has now become a political statement rather than something that everyone should support. Such a shame.

[JXC]

I don't like to think about it, but I'm more of an optimist when it comes to global warming (or should we say heating). There were people 10-20 years ago who didn't think coal would die out soon or be replaced by renewables. But here we are in a decade where solar and wind are not only cheaper than ever before, but they are outpacing coal in the US and EU now! I am still in favor of nuclear, but RMI says that if these trends keep occurring, at least 1/3 of the world's electricity by 2030 will come from wind and solar alone (with nuclear and other low-carbon sources, that's roughly half of our electricity generation)! If Chile and Denmark can tackle emissions problems well enough, we should be able to too. Not to mention, the incentives created by the Inflation Reduction Act are working out better than we thought.

["JL" was too short]

1 hour ago, JXC said:

I don't like to think about it, but I'm more of an optimist when it comes to global warming (or should we say heating). There were people 10-20 years ago who didn't think coal would die out soon or be replaced by renewables. But here we are in a decade where solar and wind are not only cheaper than ever before, but they are outpacing coal in the US and EU now! I am still in favor of nuclear, but RMI says that if these trends keep occurring, at least 1/3 of the world's electricity by 2030 will come from wind and solar alone (with nuclear and other low-carbon sources, that's roughly half of our electricity generation)! If Chile and Denmark can tackle emissions problems well enough, we should be able to too. Not to mention, the incentives created by the Inflation Reduction Act are working out better than we thought.

Very much this.  Things are going to be a lot worse than we'd like, but they'll still be much better than we fear—as long as the good people don't take their eyes off the ball.

Even if we're going to miss 1.5c, every little fraction of a degree helps when it comes to mitigating the overall negative effects.  Keep doing everything you can.

 

That means not giving up; that means organizing; that means voting effectively.  Even if you're disenchanted with the political system, there are still better outcomes and worse outcomes.  Work for the better ones.  It does make a difference.  Each incremental improvement makes the next one easier.  Apologies for the cliche, but: it's a marathon, not a sprint.

 

The people who are causing all of this would love nothing more than for you to give up and stop fighting against it—or to adopt righteous-feeling, all-or-nothing performative attitudes that don't actually lead to improvements—so that they can keep burning their gas stoves and coal power plants in perpetuity while the opposition bloc fragments.

There is nothing virtuous about cynicism or small-d dooming.  Anyone who explicitly or implicitly tries to lead you to believe that there is, is not your friend.

[aloysiusfreeman]

I really toe the line at becoming a doomer and not a doomer in this regards. Doomer because if you actually want to ameliorate the effects of climate change, its going to require drastic choices that will be a shock to a lot of people, and those choices will be fiercely opposed by corporations and politicians. I want the tides to turn and people actually bring forth a revolutionary change against those greedy fucks, but humans are weird and a lot of conditioning has been done to pacify us.

 

I feel guilty that where I live does not have a total existential crisis that other places around the world face with regards to climate change. And sure, human adaptability can probably cope with whatever market solutions there comes, but I think that disregards the catastrophic effects that many people will face and who are facing the brunt of climate change despite other countries being the leading cause of climate change.

 

On 8/11/2023 at 6:36 PM, Mr. Freeze said:

Climate change has to be combated at all levels- even ours. Until we as a species can make better consumer choices it's only going to get worse. 

 

I think about this a lot and the primary issue is corporations that heavily invest in manipulating our consumer choices. Sure, everyone making better consumer choices can make a difference, but ultimately there needs to be a major political decision that makes essentially forces the consumer choice. 

[RDETalus]

On 8/12/2023 at 4:23 AM, DSC said:

I just wanted to ask other DW, do you share this feeling of hopelessness and sadness too?

There's no reason to be a doomer about this, consider three facts:

1. In your lifetime? You are unlikely to notice much change. The prediction is about 10 inches of sea level rise and +3F warmer summers by 2100.
2. We currently live in the Pleistocene Ice Age. In several thousand years, there will be 1-mile thick glaciers on top of London anyways. The planet is not "heating to death."
3. Nearly all the most developed countries have already made massive gains in pollution reduction. The US in particular has trended downward for the last 2 decades.

 

Bonus fact:
    4. Majority of people now believe global warming is happening, this wasn't the case several decades ago. There is incremental progress in public consciousness on this matter

Edited August 15, 2023 by RDETalus

[ClumsyDoomer]

Igne natura renovatur integra

[G19Doom]

Mother Nature is sick of our shit. 

[Professor Hastig]

The inconvenient truth about current global warming is that everybody would have to alter their lifestyle if they want to combat it - modern civilization is just consuming way too many resources, and overpopulation is also adding to the problem. Seeing how resistant Humans are toward change in general it will be a tough uphill battle - and change is slow and will take long, even those countries which are very active are facing decades of restructuring to get it all done.

 

Regarding all the doomsaying, let's not forget that there have been times when the Earth was a lot warmer than it is now - so it will most certainly survive.

Of course, those who cannot adapt will inevitably die out, as it always has been with natural selection.

 

[RDETalus]

1 hour ago, Professor Hastig said:

Regarding all the doomsaying, let's not forget that there have been times when the Earth was a lot warmer than it is now - so it will most certainly survive.

 

Can't stress this enough. A lot of younger people believe the planet is dying or something. That's not true whatsoever, the planet was actually +12 C hotter than today during the dinosaur's age. Can you imagine that, +12 C hotter? Yet the Earth was full of life. The Earth probably had more life back then because it wasn't icy cold and all the bio-matter was on the surface instead of being locked up in underground in oil caves. My point is, the planet isn't dying or anywhere close to dying.

I am not saying that climate change isn't a threat. It is a real challenge. But you cannot be running around with unscientific delusions about "a dying planet" that is causing psychological damage onto yourself, that's insane

 

I had a friend who told me he refuses to have children because "they will die of climate change." I don't even understand the thought process behind that one.

Edited August 15, 2023 by RDETalus

[Professor Hastig]

1 hour ago, RDETalus said:

 The Earth probably had more life back then because it wasn't icy cold and all the bio-matter was on the surface instead of being locked up in underground in oil caves. My point is, the planet isn't dying or anywhere close to dying.

 

Now that you are saying that, here's a thought - maybe that's Humanity's purpose in the grand scheme of things: Get all that buried biomatter back to the surface. Of course once the task is accomplished, Humanity is not needed anymore and may go extinct! >D

 

[RDETalus]

1 hour ago, Professor Hastig said:

maybe that's Humanity's purpose in the grand scheme of things: Get all that buried biomatter back to the surface

"Decomposers play a critical role in the flow of energy through an ecosystem. They break apart dead organisms into simpler inorganic materials, making nutrients available to primary producers."

Well sure, everything on this planet has its place in the food chain. It's certainly interesting to consider that we're a just a mega advanced form of decomposer species.

Edited August 15, 2023 by RDETalus

[Biodegradable]

4 hours ago, RDETalus said:

I had a friend who told me he refuses to have children because "they will die of climate change." I don't even understand the thought process behind that one.

 

He's not alone. I've seen plenty of other people echo that same sentiment, myself included. I guess I can try and articulate the thought process, at least from my perspective. Simply put: whether it be my children, my grandchildren or my great-grandchildren; I don't feel entirely optimistic about what civilization is going to be like or the state of the world in general over the next half-century and the thought of my family suffering is haunting. Granted, I don't know that for sure, but all the insane natural disasters and bizarre weather anomalies we've witnessed over the past few years haven't helped eschew those feelings. The best example being the damn-near apocalyptic Black Summer when it happened down here in Australia back in late 2019; it was genuinely the most horrifying thing I had ever seen in my entire life, even though I personally wasn't anywhere near it, and it was enough to galvanise that already middling fear within me. I know I'll be long dead before the likelihood of anything close to resembling my nightmares will happen, but how can I be assured of the same thing in regards to everyone else in my direct lineage?

 

Of course, I know I'm merely speaking from an emotional point, not a rational one. I know I have no evidence to suggest humanity will be consumed in an environmental cataclysm anytime soon and -- for all I know -- we may actually get our act together at some point as a society and make huge, meaningful changes to avoid such a future. However, when I look at the state of the world right now, it just renders one pretty fucking cynical. I don't want to be! I've always tried my best to be an optimist, but when it comes to this particular subject, the strength of my resolve is reduced to cracked glass at best. I'll be the first to admit that this point of view is dramatic, but one cannot help how one feels given the circumstances. I desperately want to be proven wrong and I hope things improve that will change my mind, sincerely.

 

I don't want to be afraid, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't.

Edited August 15, 2023 by Biodegradable

[Professor Hastig]

Humanity will certainly not go extinct as a whole, the species is far too resilient and adaptive for that.

 

What will certainly happen if it gets warmer is that some land areas will become uninhabitable by Humans and others that are currently uninhabitable, like most of the northern polar region may become habitable in return.

 

In any case, what do you expect the world would be like in 500 years? If you go back by the same amount you will land in an era where civilization was a lot more primitive, superstition reigned supreme and there were far, far less Humans than there are today. Going from that, things may either revert to a far more primitive state again, or Humanity will solve many of today's urgent problems by then, maybe actual space travel will be invented, maybe not.

Just don't ever expect that the path to the future will be an easy one. Setbacks are to be expected as they are just part of the natural order of things.

 

The one thing I am certain of is that civilization in 500 years may be as alien to us as the middle ages, or even just the early era of industrialization.

 

 

[Aaron Blain]

- Total extinction is very possible. For example, once all the algae start dying because the ocean is too hot, less CO2 is absorbed and the whole process accelerates.

 

- We are already on track for catastrophic disruption of the global food system that will cause a migration crisis far worse than anything happening now, which in turn stimulates the growth of fascism etc.

 

- It is a lie that the problem is some pervasive lack of personal morality. "Your carbon footprint" for example is propaganda straight from the fossil fuel industry. The problem is an irrational system of production and ownership. No matter how religiously you use compostable straws, Exxon or Lockheed-Martin will undo all your efforts in the blink or an eye.

[act]

kali yuga! :D

[RDETalus]

1 hour ago, Aaron Blain said:

Total extinction is very possible. For example, once all the algae start dying because the ocean is too hot

No, that's not going to happen. Algae doesn't work like that. They favor heat, CO2, and sunlight for the most part. As water temperature warms, they grow bigger and thicker. The species that don't tolerate heat will be replaced by the ones that do. There's no scenario where all the algae dies from heat. The planet has seen a +7C warming from 20,000 years ago to today, so they can adapt to changing temperature well. 120,000 years ago the temperature was +2C hotter than today, and the algae didn't die off back then. This is what I am talking about, this isn't real science this is fear porn stuff.

Edited August 16, 2023 by RDETalus

[Ludi]

It will get better, sitting around and contributing to climate doomism doesn't solve the problem. 

 

While the "we all have to pitch in" mentality was abused by corporations to promote the recycling scam, it absolutely applies to climate change. We as consumers have the power to not buy from corporations that destroy the planet, it's just up to the individual to make that choice.

 

Regarding government pollution, you have the power to vote for people who support policies that reduce emissions. When everyone votes for that goal, the future is a little brighter already.

 

Obviously that's not the whole picture, but this video explains my thoughts in better detail:

 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Ludi

[Aaron Blain]

21 minutes ago, RDETalus said:

No, that's not going to happen.

There are quite a few self-reinforcing cycles being analyzed:

 

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950

[RDETalus]

I don't deny that big changes will happen, but "total extinction" because "all the algae start dying" is not one of them. There is no legitimate climate scientist that thinks this scenario is a possibility.

 

I agree with you that global food production and political instability are the most dangerous to you in the short term though.

Edited August 16, 2023 by RDETalus

[Professor Hastig]

6 hours ago, Aaron Blain said:

- Total extinction is very possible. For example, once all the algae start dying because the ocean is too hot, less CO2 is absorbed and the whole process accelerates.

 

Ugh, no. Life does not work like that. Some species adapt and will survive, others that won't adapt will die. Just have a look at the dinosaurs. Earth - and life on it - even survived cataclysmic events like large asteroid impacts compared to which the current warming period is utter peanuts.

 

6 hours ago, Aaron Blain said:

- We are already on track for catastrophic disruption of the global food system that will cause a migration crisis far worse than anything happening now, which in turn stimulates the growth of fascism etc.

 

And then some war will happen that will level out the playing field. Bad for modern civilization, good for Earth in general.

 

6 hours ago, Aaron Blain said:

- It is a lie that the problem is some pervasive lack of personal morality. "Your carbon footprint" for example is propaganda straight from the fossil fuel industry. The problem is an irrational system of production and ownership. No matter how religiously you use compostable straws, Exxon or Lockheed-Martin will undo all your efforts in the blink or an eye.

 

As long as civilization needs oil the current cycle won't be broken. The only way out of it is to cut the dependency on oil, gas and coal. Of course these dinosaur companies will fight it to the bitter end but since these resources are finite and at some points alternatives become more economical, they can't survive, unless they adapt. Just giving up is not the solution, every single drop that undermines their position counts.

 

Don't forget that 150 years ago nobody ever heard of Exxon or Lockheed-Martin. I fully expect them to be distant memories of some dark age 150 years in the future, just like most stuff that was relevant 150 years ago doesn't have any relevance today.

 

Regardless of how things play out, civilization in 100 years will be very different from now.

 

 

[RDETalus]

On 8/15/2023 at 7:52 PM, Biodegradable said:

However, when I look at the state of the world right now, it just renders one pretty fucking cynical. I don't want to be! I've always tried my best to be an optimist, but when it comes to this particular subject, the strength of my resolve is reduced to cracked glass at best.

Yeah that's sad to hear. I don't like hearing this sort of stuff, especially if you actually wanted to have children, and weren't merely lukewarm on the idea.
 

I'm reminded of the nuclear war anxiety that people felt during the cold war. Nobody could predict the future back then, and fear of nuclear war certainly affected the life choices people made, including the decision to have children. There just simply wasn't any good answer to that problem.

 

On the bright side, I do want to point out that this is the best time in history to actually raise children. For the vast vast majority of human history, the childhood mortality rate was about 50%. This is worse than an urban pigeon. If you had a baby, flip a coin: he'll be dead before puberty. If you had 4 children, 2 of them will never grow up. This sort of misery would be absolutely unthinkable today. It's a blessing we don't have this mortality rate anymore (and also why there are 8 billion of us).